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Modeling Predicts Ebola Outcomes


Centers for Disease Control and Prevention - May 12, 2016 简述埃博拉疫情应对中建模的作用。 Describing modeling's role in Ebola outbreak response.

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Dr. Thomas Frieden, Director, CDC: In 2014, the world experienced its first Ebola epidemic. It was like nothing we had ever seen. It spread rapidly through densely-populated cities, countries and an entire region. But we needed to do more. At CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), we make decisions based on the best available science. CDC scientists projected that without any intervention, there could have been as many as 1.4 million cases of Ebola in Liberia and Sierra Leone. This was done based on a model that showed four things: First, cases were doubling every three weeks, setting the stage to turn a crisis into a catastrophe. Second, time was lives. Progress needed to be made in hours and days, not weeks and months. Every month of delay would triple the number of cases. Third, the tipping point was at least 70% safe care of patients, and safe burial for those who died. Finally, if we could reach that 70% figure, cases would plummet just as quickly as they had risen. The prediction mirrors what actually happened over the following months. In Liberia, the number of cases we predicted would occur if we took rapid action, was very close to the number of cases that actually were reported and estimated to have occurred through mid-January. The model showed not only what could happen and what should happen, it also predicted what did happen. This finding guided actions of CDC, the U.S. government, the World Health Organization (WHO), and the affected countries and communities, to provide safe burial and safe care for patients with Ebola. This rapid action broke the back of the epidemic, and it also demonstrated modeling's role during an outbreak response.

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    affected countries and communities 受影响的国家和社区
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    affected country 受影响的国家
  • back of 后面的
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    best available science 现有的最佳科学
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    burial 埋葬【名词】1. 埋葬,葬礼; 2. 埋葬地,墓地
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    catastrophe 灾难; 祸患
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    community 社区【名词】1. 村社;社会,集体;乡镇,村落;【生物学】群落,群社; 2. 共有,共用;共同体,共同组织;联营(机构); 3. 共(通)性;一致(性);类似性
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    crisis 危机【名词】1. 危急关头,紧要关头;(政治、经济上的)危机,危局;恐慌;激变; 2. 【医学】转变期,骤退;临界;危象; 3. 【剧、影】危急情节,转折点
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    demonstrate 显示出【及物动词】演示,证明,展示,表明,论证,示范,表现出,展现
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    densely-populated city 人口密集的城市
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    director 主管【名词】1. 指挥者,监督人,管理人; 总监;院长;所长;主任 2.理事,董事;经理 3. 【戏剧】导演【音乐】指挥 4. 引向器; 指示器; 导向偶极子
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    disease 【名词】1. 病,疾病;【植物】病害 2. (精神等的)病态,弊病 3. (酒等的)变质;(食物等的)腐败
  • disease control 疾病控制
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    Ebola epidemic 埃博拉疫情
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    Ebola virus 埃博拉病毒
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    epidemic 【名词】1. 流行病,传染病;疫情,瘟疫 2. (风尚等的)流行;(流行病的)蔓延 【形容词】1. 传染病; 2. 流行性的
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    estimate 估计 【及物动词】1. 估计,估算;估价;估量; 2. 评价,评断; 3. (古语)尊重; 【不及物动词】估计,估价; 【名词】1. 估计; 预测;(英国) (pl.)预算,预算额;预算书;估价单;(从典型统计得出的)数值; 2. 评价,判断
  • Extracting Microarray Gene Expression Patterns and Identifying co-expressed Genes 提取微阵列基因表达模式和确认共表达基因◆【略】EPIG
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    figure 图,图形◆【略】Fig.
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    finding 【名词】1.发现,发现物,调查的结果,研究结果; 2. 裁决,定罪 【动词原形】find
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    government 政府【名词】港府
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    health organization 卫生组织;健康组织
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    intervention 干预【名词】1. 插进,介入; 2. 调解,排解; 3. 干涉,干预,妨碍
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    mirror 真实的反映; 反射境; 镜子
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    modeling's role during an outbreak response 在对疫情响应期间建模的作用
  • number of cases 病例数
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    outbreak 【名词】1. (疾病、虫害等的)突然蔓延,突然发生 2. (战争、怒气等的)爆发 3. 暴动,骚扰;反抗
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    plummet 暴跌【名词】测锤(钓丝的)坠子;线锤;铅锤线;锤规;重压物;【不及物动词】笔直掉下;骤然跌落
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    populate 填充【及物动词】1. 使人口聚居在…中;移民于;殖民于;居住于…中;【不及物动词】(人口)繁殖,增加
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    predict 【及物动词】预测; 预言;预示 【不及物动词】做出预言;作预料;预计
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    prediction 预测 【名词】1. 预言,预告; 2. 被预言的事物; 3. 【气象学】预测,预报
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    prevention 【名词】1. 预防;预防法 2. 阻止; 妨碍
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    safe burial 安全埋葬
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    safe care 安全照顾
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    safe care of patients 患者的安全护理
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    scientist 科学家
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    setting 1. 设置; 设定; 安装 2. 环境;背景; 布置
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    tipping point 临界点; 质变的触发点; 卸载点
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    triple 三重【不及物动词】增至三倍;【名词】三倍的数[量];三个一组;【棒球】三垒安打;【形容词】三倍的,三重的,三层的;三部分的;【法律】三者间的
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    United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 美国疾病预防控制中心◆【略】CDC
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    World Health Organization 世界卫生组织◆【略】WHO
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